India Expected to Meet 2025/26 Growth Target Despite U.S. Tariffs:

India is likely to achieve its projected GDP growth range of 6.3% to 6.8% for the fiscal year 2025/26 (April to March), provided crude oil prices remain below $70 per barrel, a senior finance ministry official stated. This optimism persists even as global trade faces disruptions following the latest round of U.S. tariffs.

Trade War Impact Seen as Limited on India’s Key Metrics

The official's statement follows market volatility sparked by a trade conflict initiated by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff measures. These actions have caused significant downturns in Asian stock markets. Some economists estimate the U.S. tariffs may reduce India’s GDP growth by 20 to 40 basis points this fiscal year and negatively impact sectors like the diamond industry, which heavily exports to the U.S., threatening thousands of jobs.

Fiscal Stability and Exporter Support in Focus

Another finance ministry official, however, emphasized that these tariff measures are unlikely to significantly impact India’s primary fiscal indicators for 2025/26. The government is prepared to introduce additional measures to support exporters affected by rising U.S. tariffs.

Government Open to More Export Incentives

“We have already made allocations in the budget under duty remission schemes to assist exporters. We remain open to expanding support if required,” said the official. Both officials requested anonymity as they were not authorized to speak publicly.

India Avoids Tariff Retaliation, Keeps Trade Talks Active

India has no current plans to respond with retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. despite President Trump’s 26% tariff on goods imported from India, according to reports. Trade discussions between the two nations are ongoing, and India appears focused on diplomatic solutions rather than escalation.