Priyanka Tiwari
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Elections in Kerala: One of the specialties of the BJP organization which has been continuously winning elections after elections for the last few years is that even during organizational elections, they direct their focus towards the electoral states. A recent instance of this has come from Kerala. BJP is not as strong in Kerala as it is in northern parts of India, but there is certainly some talk of BJP’s preparations over there these days. The Congress-led UDF and the Left parties’ alliance LDF have begun the process of electioneering, and at the same time BJP is busy establishing its footprint. Experts are of the opinion that this time it seems there are some signs with change in the traditional bi-polar politics of Kerala This has created new challenges for both Congress and the Left. But how?
How is BJP increasing its voter bank?
It is undoubtedly true that the Left parties have held Power in Kerala during the last decade. But the LDF did better in the 2019 and 2024 Lokshabha elections. How much this will affect the assembly elections remains to be seen.
Though the LDF held power during the 2021 assembly elections, the UDF managed to win in the Lok Sabha in 2019. The contest is expected to be intriguing once again, as the BJP appears to be steadily increasing their vote share.
Could this contest take on the shape of a triangle?
The BJP’s strategy is particularly aimed at the Nair and fishing communities, who have been traditional LDF voters. Observers opine that there used to be just a binary contest between the UDF and LDF in Kerala, but with the rapid rise of the BJP, that might change to a triangular contest. The party is consolidating its position after winning the Thrissur seat in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections as well as performing commendably in several assembly constituencies.
The Left and Congress have had to alter their approaches due to the increasing vote shares of BJP. The BJP vote share was 12% in the 2021 assembly elections and 19% in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Congress strategists expect the public to be angry with the LDF government, but how much the UDF can leverage that anger is unknown. On the other hand, repeating the previous success will not be easy for LDF. The BJP not only consolidated its position among Hindu voters, but also sought support from the Christian community. This time, the politics of Kerala is shifting towards new equations. Some analysts describe the BJP's strategy as an open secret, because it is clear that the BJP will do anything to win over Hindu voters.
Everyone wants to win the elections in Kerala.. Votes are important…
In parallel with ongoing issues, there has been another intriguing development that has come to light and is quite recent. There is a faction of voters in Kerala who do not support Congress, but also have simpatica for BJP. CPM has their eyes set on this too, but there is intra politics disagreement in Congress, CPI and Left which is of serious nature. This has happened owing to a resolution that has passed lately wherein CPI has been soft towards BJP. It had been stated that the BJP government is not behaving in a tyrannical way. This will be something to look into in the following assembly elections in 2026.
What is the electoral spectacle of Kerala?
Regarding elections in Kerala, the last ones were on 2021 and the Left Front LDF was able to mainten his power winning 99 of the total 140 seats contestes. By the same time, the Congress led UDF was able to win 41 seats. On the other hand, the CPM was able to lose almost altogether in the previous Lok Sabha elections held in 2024. While the LDF was able to secure a single seat, the UDF was able to win 18 and for the first time, BJP being able to secure one seat in Kerala. The focus now turns to the next year where all eyes are now directed at the BJP emerging as a prominent contender.
