Iran is struggling with sanctions domestically and has faced severe military defeats in the Middle East. Struggles are expected to escalate with the return of Trump to the White House with his strategy based on maximum pressure. In order to prepare for that scenario however, Iran conducted a two-month-long military drill that involved the testing of air vehicles deployed around nuclear facilities and conducting exercises in trade vital water spaces.
Exhibiting strength in a militarized manner appears to be their attempt to showcase power, however throughout the last year they have faced numerous hardships and so there exists skepticism over Iran’s possibility of projecting strength.
The collapse of Assad, which Iran supported immensely, was a severe cause for damage to their resistive wing throughout the region. That same wing previously fought against Israel who also assaulted two Iranian backed militant groups in Gaza and Lebanon. This further began a cycle of blame since Israel attacked Iran only a year back.
This week, a Syrian based Iranian Revolutionary Guard general made an unambiguous statement regarding the economy of the country “I do not see it as a matter of pride that we lost Syria. We lost. We badly lost. We blew it.” An audio of a speech given by Gen. Behrouz Esbati was leaked to media earlier and the general adds,” At home, Iran’s economy is in tatters”which has been the main focus of the government.
Iran cannot develop weapons of mass destruction around the globe, and it has not yielded to diplomacy persuasions which have tried working around the country’s allies and imposition sanctions. Moreover, inflation has increased the worth of US dollar and oppressed families in Iran, the rial has plummeted in value and is of no use. While Teheran’s power plants are trying to conserve fuel during harsh winters, the capital Tehran is simultaneously being engulfed in pollution.
In the recent years political protesting have been on the rise, from nationwide women rights revolution to the economy protests, it has been seen all around the globe.
It is yet to be seen how Trump would go about interacting with Iran, however, during Tuesday's conference, he did not rule out the option of the US striking nuclear sites in Iran to prevent them from weapon-grade uranium for enriching.
While speaking to reporters at his Mar-a-Lago resort, Trump said, “It’s a military strategy, I am not answering questions on military strategy.” While Iran claims that all of their nuclear activities are for peaceful purposes, officials in Iran have been hinting at the possibility of them developing a nuclear bomb in the future.
Roughly said, Europe is getting tougher on Iran than it used to, standing by Netanyahu and Trump's sentiments. France’s Emmanuel Macron did not hesitate to call Iran a ‘strategic threat’ to France worldwide. Considering Macron’s perspective of Iran increasing its nuclear capabilities ‘zones Iran’, it is safe to say Macron’s nerves are not fully smiled around. France has been an active voice against Iran’s ballistic and nuclear potential, indicating that it is of utmost concern for Europeans interests. Macron believes otherwise considering Irans ability to exercise stern military support towards Russia.
Iran has been persistent in its regulations over customary international law to restrict its ability to contend in world politics and economy, which always led to America’s administration to Islamophobic actions. France, Germany, and UK were earlier vested into the Iran military deal of 2015. However due to the US’s extreme sanctions over Iran those became less effective post in signing in the agreement.
However, France, Germany as well as the United Kingdom now regard the improvements in Tehrans atomic program as a ``nuclear proliferation’’ which has to be reversed. This raises the possibility of Western countries seeking so-called “snapback” of those UN sanctions on Iran, which would be disastrous for the Iranian economy. That power of “snapback” would come to an end in October.
On Wednesday Iran let go an Italian journalist Cecilia Sala who had been held under detention for three weeks while on a reporters visa authorised by the government of Iran to work there.
Sala's deportation happened a few days after Italian police took into custody an Iranian engineer who was accused by the US of supporting in the manufacture of drones used in the attack on the US site in Jordan that killed 3 American soldiers in January 2024. He continues to be in custody in Italy.
Iran insists on military exercises feeling more concern The Iranian armed forces together with the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard embarked on military exercises that may have a longer duration than normal. But the purpose to convey to the US and Israel — and to the Iranian population – is clear. Iran is seeking to demonstrate that it has the ability to respond to any strike.
On Tuesday, Iran conducted air defence exercises in the vicinity of its Natanz underground nuclear enrichment facility, where it claimed it could target an alleged ‘bunker buster’ bomb which is intended to obliterate such facilities. However, The drill did not include any of the four advanced S-300 Russian air defence systems which Israel targeted during its air raids on Iran for which at least two are alleged to have been destroyed and Israeli officials contend all have been eliminated as well.
Kenneth Kaltz, now with the Soufan Centre, stated: “Some of the US and Israeli reservations towards an attack on Iran are weakening,”. Kenneth evaluates that “the Obama administration might refrain from attacking Iran directly, but they wouldn’t do much to deter an Israeli attack either." As always, there are various ways Iran’s navy can engage during the exercises, for example. For years, Iran has threatened to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, which controls about 20 percent of the global oil transportation.
Ambrey, a private maritime security company, predicted these tools would remain instrumental in Iranian counter attempts: „Harassment and seizures, most probably, will stay the necessary means of Iranian counteraction."
But its allies are very likely not to be of much assistance. The Houthi rebels of Yemen, who have long been supplied by Iran, have reduced the pace of their attacks on maritime transport routes, and Iran has been rather cautious in dealing with Russia, worrying about its reliability.
The Iranian general Esbati claimed in his speech that Russia disabled all of the radars in Syria to facilitate an Israeli airstrike on a Guard intelligence center.
Esbati did say that Iranian missiles “don’t have so much penetration” and that US would respond to any attack on its regional bases.
He explains, “At this time, and with this context, bringing the region into a military engagement is not in line with the interests of the resistance.”