China's Dilemma: The Impact of a Ukraine Peace Deal on U.S.-China Relations:

For Xi Jinping, the end of Russia’s war in Ukraine creates ample possibilities along with the threat that China would become the main target of US military attention.

American and Russian diplomats are beginning discussion in Saudi Arabia to resolve the 3-year conflict which has raised eyebrows across Europe and Ukraine as he wonders whether Donald Trump will be foolish enough to gift victory to Vladimir Putin. China has openly supported the talks and is repositioning itself to reap benefits from the reconstruction efforts, as well as the further division among the American superpower and its NATO allies regarding democracy, and the broader international order based on rules.

The problem with Beijing is what steps Trump will take next. Comments from key players around the Republican candidate, such as Donald Trump Jr & the head of the Pentagon Pete Hegseth, suggest that there is a desire in the bosom of the superpower to take out a large chunk of military expenditure aimed at China.

“John Gong, a consultant for China’s Ministry of Commerce and a professor at the University of International Business and Economics, said that the ‘Beijing is definitely within a catch 22 scenario’. He added, ‘Consequently, Beijing wishes the war ends or at least would like a ceasefire’ but it also is not keen on being the number one main agenda for Washington.”

So far, China has steered clear of any action that would antagonize Trump, such as doing nothing after his 10 percent tariff and ‘Wolf Warrior’ diplomacy as seen in his initial term. Xi is focusing on the severely ill economy suffering from years long property bust, tightly bound deflation, and depressed spending. This week the Chinese leader met with Jack Ma from Alibaba for the first time to wrap up the chapter of regulatory crackdowns to unleash ‘animal spirits’ in the economy, which is something Beijing is determined to set free as the country readies to disclose its yearly target for growth next month.

Trump himself has used less hostile language regarding China, stating to reporters on Wednesday that a trade deal was 'possible' and once more boasting of his ‘very good relationship’ with Xi. But his administration especially includes China hawks like Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who has pledged to counter Beijing’s 'destabilizing actions' in the South China Sea.

China would be sensitive to any stepped up scrutiny with regards to its actions in the Indo-Pacific where it has territorial disputes with the self-ruled Taiwan and the Philippines. Beijing had previously accused the US of attempting to construct a version of NATO in the Pacific region previously, which the Biden administration did by reinforcing security alliances with Japan and South Korea.

The Chinese Navy has set out three three warships within 200 miles of Sydney, Australia, which the defense minister claims to be out of the ordinary. In an effort to increase their military presence in the Asia Pacific region, the Chinese navy commenced this mission earlier in the week.

The US state department did remove a statement that declared “does not support Taiwan independence,” leading many to believe that they will endorse a pro-trump strategy. It is still the US claims to stand by the One China policy in cooperation with Russia, however it leaves wiggle room for Taiwan becuase they still have a diplomatic relationship with the region.

Taiwan seems to be observing the ongoing situation as best as they can, given Trump’s threats to Volodymyr Zelenskiy that a proactive approach to negotiating with Russia is necessary because the Ukraine will be left without a country to call home. His government appears to be equally considering easing sanctions towards Russia as well.

One diplomat from that island, which stands independently but for claims from China, asserted that the most crucial thing for Taiwan to bear in mind is that its relations with Russia and the US might enhance, but it should across all, demonstrate to Trump how valuable to his cause Taiwan is.

Taipei and Beijing find themselves in somewhat of a pickle, given that Trump’s own policy differs from that of his cabinet. The Republican while on campaign blasted Taiwan for not paying up to the US and treated former President Biden’s promise to defend Taiwan against China as a joke.

There is no indication that Xi has plans to invade Taiwan, but a softer position from their biggest power supporter could make Taipei’s position more prone to campaign pressure from Beijing.

Another which is less likely possibility is Trump being able to reach an agreement with China in Trump’s deal with Ukraine. The US president had put the idea of meeting with Putin and Xi where they would cut defense spending by half, an idea which China responded to briskly and rejected.

What China can offer Ukraine is dubious at best. Hegseth, the Secretary of Defense, has asserted that no American forces will be stationed there, and any so-called 'security guarantee’, as it was put, will have to be provided by some competent European forces, and non-European, too. This opens the possibility of some type of a peacekeeping mission under the auspices of the United Nations, some of which may involve soldiers from China, but they’re not the only troops to offer.

Based on the words of Zhou Bo, a retired senior colonel in the People’s Liberation Army and senior fellow at Tsinghua University’s Center for International Security and Strategy, “Beijing could play a ‘leading role’ with Global South and non-NATO countries in peacekeeping. It would directly improve China’s image and standing when promoting its security over Europe,” he concluded.

Beijing has so far refused to speak on the specifics if any operations are in the future plans, as the regular institutions so far haven’t received such inquiries.

Yu Jie, a senior research fellow on China at Chatham House also points out that a cessation of hostilities in Ukraine gives Beijing a “rare opportunity”, to restore its longstanding damaged relations with Europe.

Beijing is exceptionally positioned to aid in the rebuilding of Ukraine. China is famed for assisting foreign infrastructure development using cheap loans, and with its $1 trillion Belt and Road Initiative, it is poised to take advantage. China outlined its stance in 2023 position paper on the conflict, claiming they are ready to help: “China stands ready to provide assistance and play a constructive role in this endeavor.”.

Adding troops and money into Ukraine’s peace process could further oblige Xi’s “no limits” friendship with Putin, especially if Moscow decided to invade yet again. However, there is a lack of signs these recent events will weaken Russian-US relations. Regardless, Xi is set to visit Moscow in May, and these events certainly will not undo any of that.

In the matter of dealing with an untrustworthy US leader like Trump, China is more strategic, according to Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. Why? Trump Doesn’t seem to live long after 2036, and assuming there are no unforeseen health concerns, Putin stays in the Kremlin easily until then, making this plan far more beneficial.

“Why would you sacrifice a relationship with a strategic partner who will be around for as long as you can see for somebody who changes his mind all the time and who is not trustworthy?” he added.