Monsoon 2025 Update: IMD Predicts Early Arrival in Kerala by May 27:

Suspense crime, Digital Desk : The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has disclosed promising information concerning the 2025 monsoon, predicting it would be set to commence in Kerala by May 27, which is five days earlier than the customary June 1 start date. If this transpires, it would replicate the early arrival noted in 2009 when the monsoon reached Kerala on May 23.

Historical Monsoon Arrival Dates

Here’s a summary of the recent years of monsoon arrival in Kerala:

2020: June 1
2021: June 3
2022: May 29
2023: June 8
2024: May 30
IMD’s Monsoon Forecast for 2025

From the information provided from IMD, they stated they believe there to be:

30% chance of a normal monsoon
33% chance of above normal monsoon
9% chance of below a normal monsoon
The above data shows opportunity for a positive period in agricultural activities as well as for water resources.

Skymet's Monsoon Outlook

Private weather agency Skymet gives an almost identical estimate:

40% chance of normal monsoon
30% chance of increased rainfall
15% chance of decreased rainfall
GP Sharma from Skymet emphasized how unlike previous years, this year have strong indicators for the monsoon. He also advised of significant precipitation in Thailand as well as the equatorial flow being good, indicating an early monsoon start for both the Kerala and Bay of Bengal regions.

Weather Trends Across India

Delhi: The city has been fortunate enough to not exceed 40°C until May 12 and does not look likely to experience a heatwave anytime soon.

Gujarat: Hailstorms have recently been reported in some parts of the region.

Activity prior to rainfall is vigorous though may slow down slightly in the upcoming days.

What to Expect Next

Both IMD and Skymet have predicted an early monsoon this year while their long-term forecasts are still ambiguous. Coastal areas usually experience the onset of monsoon first before it advances inward.