IMD Predicts Above Normal Monsoon for India in 2025 with 105% of Long Period Average Rainfall:

The first long-range forecast for the southwest monsoon of 2025 suggests an increase in rainfall for the country, as predicted by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). IMD projects that seasonal rainfall between June and September will reach 105% of the Long Period Average (LPA) which stands at 87cm, indicating above-average rainfall.

The model incorporates a forecast error margin plus or minus 5 percent, signifying that the projection could comfortably settle within the normal to above-normal region.

In his forecast, the Director General of IMD, M Mohaptra, highlighted the dipole conditions and Indian ocean ENSO. Overall, these conditions are expected to make Indian Ocean Dipoles and ENSO neutral which will have a positive impact on Indian rainfall. This neutral phase is likely to remain around the monsoon months as well.

Supporting the agricultural sector along with the rural economy, this forecast will positively benefit water reservoirs, all of them highly dependent on monsoon rainfall.

The IMD has stated that more specific updates pertaining to region will be issued at the end of May 2025, coinciding with the revised forecast.