Priyanka Tiwari
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The aftermath of the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack has seen relentless Israeli retaliation, with over 50,000 Palestinian civilians reported dead. While international outrage has grown over the scale of Israeli strikes, there is a notable silence or hesitancy among global liberal voices when it comes to openly addressing Hamas—an organization central to the current crisis but often avoided in diplomatic discourse.
Strategic Logic Behind October 7: A Question Left Unasked
One critical question remains largely unaddressed: Did Hamas make a strategic miscalculation by initiating the October 7 attack, knowing it lacked the military capacity to defend against an inevitable Israeli response? Though some defend Hamas' action as a reaction to Israel’s inaction on the Oslo Accords, the effectiveness of violence as a means to achieve political goals remains in serious doubt.
Historical Pattern: Violence Has Failed to Deliver
Both Fatah in the 1970s and Hamas now have failed to outmaneuver Israel through armed conflict. Hamas' logic—that only force will draw concessions—falls short because it cannot match Israeli strength, particularly given Israel’s reliance on robust U.S. military aid. The more viable strategy might have been building international support, especially within the United States, rather than pursuing repeated escalations.
Hamas vs Fatah: A Divided Leadership
The 2006 Palestinian elections, where Hamas won 76 seats against Fatah’s 43, marked a critical split in Palestinian politics. By 2007, Hamas controlled Gaza, and Fatah retained power in the West Bank. Despite repeated efforts—from the Mecca Agreement (2007) to the Beijing Agreement (2024)—the factions remain divided.
Now, the international community, including the U.S., EU, Egypt, and Qatar, is pushing for a post-war Gaza administration that excludes both Hamas and Fatah, favoring a non-factional governance model.
The Inconvenient Truth: Hamas Is Still a Major Player
Israel continues efforts to eliminate Hamas militarily, having killed several top leaders since October 2023. However, the organization remains intact, raising doubts about Israel’s capacity to fully dismantle it. Despite calls for Hamas to disarm and leave, there is no sign of surrender, and Hamas continues to be part of ongoing negotiations in Doha and Cairo.
Even if Hamas were to exit, its political relevance wouldn’t disappear, especially given Fatah’s perceived ineffectiveness in achieving Palestinian autonomy. The group remains a default representative for many Palestinians due to a lack of better alternatives, much like Hezbollah in Lebanon or the Houthis in Yemen.
A Path to Transformation? Lessons from Syria
There’s a suggestion that Hamas could evolve under the right leadership—similar to how Abu Mohammed al-Joulani, the former al-Qaeda affiliate leader in Syria, repositioned himself as a regional authority figure by merging his forces with the Syrian army. Whether such a transformation is possible for Hamas depends on whether politically flexible and pragmatic leaders emerge from within.
