Trump Threatens Sanctions Over Mexico's Water Treaty Shortfall:

Former President Donald Trump has accused Mexico of violating the 1944 Water Treaty by failing to deliver its agreed share of Rio Grande water to the United States. With the current five-year cycle ending in October, data shows Mexico has only delivered under 30% of its 1.75 million acre-feet obligation.

Trump took to Truth Social to criticize Mexico, stating, "Mexico OWES Texas 1.3 million acre-feet of water... and is unfortunately violating their Treaty obligation." He added that sanctions and tariffs could be introduced if compliance is not met.

Mexican Government Responds With Proposal Amid Drought

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum responded on X, asserting that Mexico has been fulfilling its obligations "to the extent water is available," citing a prolonged drought as a major barrier. She confirmed a proposal was submitted to U.S. officials aimed at improving short-term water transfers.

Sheinbaum expressed optimism, saying, "I am sure... an agreement will be reached." She instructed key ministers to engage directly with their U.S. counterparts.

Treaty Flexibility and Ongoing Water Tensions

The 1944 treaty includes provisions allowing for delays in water deliveries due to extreme drought, enabling Mexico to carry over shortfalls into future cycles. However, tensions remain as U.S. politicians—especially from Texas—accuse Mexico of repeated non-compliance.

While the U.S. has met most of its annual 1.5 million acre-feet delivery to Mexico from the Colorado River, drought has also affected these transfers, which are permitted under treaty exceptions.

Political Pressure and Attempts to Increase Water Flow

Mexican officials are under increased pressure to address the shortfall amid fears Trump could tie the issue to broader trade negotiations. Reuters reports that Mexico has agreed to send an additional 122,000 acre-feet, with plans for another 81,000 acre-feet under consideration.

Even with these efforts, Mexico would still have fulfilled less than 40% of its treaty commitment. Internal conflicts are also emerging, particularly in northern states where local governments resist federal efforts to divert water.

In 2020, tensions peaked when Mexico's National Guard clashed with farmers at the Boquilla Dam in Chihuahua, resulting in a fatal protest.