Priyanka Tiwari
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Manipur remains in turmoil even after the imposition of President’s Rule, which effectively transferred the state's governance to the Centre. Despite Parliament approving this move along with the state's budget, the situation on the ground remains precarious.
The biggest challenge facing the BJP-led government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah is the Kuki community’s unyielding demand for a separate administration or Union Territory. The Kukis, predominantly Christian hill tribals comprising 18% of Manipur’s population, insist on separation to ensure their security and dignity.
The Roots of the Kuki-Meitei Conflict
Since May 2023, violent ethnic and religious clashes between the Meitei (majority Hindu population, 53%) and the Kukis have escalated. The Kukis have suffered significant casualties, destruction of homes, and attacks on churches, leading to an erosion of trust in the majority community.
Reports indicate that Kukis account for two-thirds of the 260 fatalities recorded so far. Their growing loss of faith in coexistence is fueling their demand for separation.
Failed Attempts at Restoring Order
On March 8, an operation to enforce "free movement" under Home Minister Amit Shah’s directive ran into strong Kuki resistance in Kangpokpi. The move, aimed at allowing Meiteis to enter Kuki-dominated hill areas, was perceived as biased. The confrontation resulted in:
- The death of a Kuki youth.
- Dozens of injuries among protesters and security forces.
- The suspension of the operation, marking a significant setback for the Centre.
The incident underscored the deep-rooted hostility between the two communities and the impossibility of a resolution without a political solution.
Kukis Demand a Plebiscite for Separation
Kuki leaders have made it clear that they will not back down without a political settlement, which translates to territorial separation. Their protests and demonstrations continue, with participants holding the Indian tricolor, singing the national anthem, and swearing by the Constitution—indicating that their movement has no foreign backing or funding.
The stalemate between the Ministry of Home Affairs and Kuki representatives remains unresolved, as the Kukis insist on an immediate plebiscite or referendum as a step toward Union Territory status.
Arms Recovery and Security Challenges
Another pressing issue is the failure to recover looted arms from both Kuki and Meitei militias. Intelligence sources suggest that the Meitei groups possess a larger arsenal of stolen weapons than the Kukis. However, both sides have ignored multiple deadlines to surrender their arms, challenging the authority of the Governor and the Central Government.
The Union Government may have to initiate a crackdown on militant leaders, especially Meitei warlords, to demonstrate impartiality and restore law and order.
BJP Faces Political Risk in Manipur
Beyond the ongoing unrest, the BJP faces a political crisis in Manipur. The Congress Party’s sweeping victory in last year’s Lok Sabha elections exposed the BJP’s declining influence in the state it has ruled since 2017. If Assembly elections were held today, Congress would likely form the next state government.
With Assembly elections due in 2027, President’s Rule may be the BJP’s last opportunity to restore stability and rebuild trust before Manipuris deliver their next political verdict.
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