
The fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas came to an abrupt end on Tuesday, as Israel launched multiple airstrikes on targets across the Gaza Strip. The strikes have reportedly killed over 250 people, including women and children. Israel has indicated that this military operation is open-ended and could expand, sparking fears that the 17-month-old conflict may reignite fully.
Ceasefire and Negotiations Breakdown
The ceasefire, agreed upon in mid-January, was part of a three-phase plan, the first phase of which concluded two weeks ago. However, Israel rejected entering substantive talks for the second phase, which would have led to a long-term ceasefire, a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and the return of hostages taken by Hamas in the October 7, 2023 attack that began the war.
The ceasefire was intended to continue as long as negotiations for the second phase took place. These talks were mediated by the United States, Egypt, and Qatar, with the hope of reaching a lasting peace agreement. During the first phase, Hamas released 25 living hostages and the remains of eight others in exchange for nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners. Israeli forces also withdrew to buffer zones within Gaza, and hundreds of thousands of displaced Palestinians returned to northern Gaza.
Israel’s New Proposal and Hamas’ Rejection
Two weeks ago, Israel cut off all supplies — food, medicine, fuel, and electricity — to Gaza, attempting to pressure Hamas into accepting a new proposal. This new plan would require Hamas to release half of its remaining hostages in exchange for an extension of the ceasefire and negotiations for a permanent truce. However, Israel made no mention of releasing additional Palestinian prisoners, a key element in the first phase of the agreement.
Hamas rejected the proposal, accusing Israel of trying to sabotage the existing ceasefire agreement. With this rejection, Israel launched a surprise attack, escalating the war once again.
Israel’s Justification and International Reactions
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that the strikes were a response to Hamas' rejection of the new proposal. He warned that Israel would now "act against Hamas with increasing military strength." The White House expressed support for Israel’s actions, signaling U.S. backing for the renewed military campaign.
In contrast, Hamas accused Netanyahu of undermining the ceasefire agreement, claiming the Israeli attacks would endanger the remaining hostages and potentially expose them to an uncertain fate.
Ramifications of Renewed Fighting
The surprise attack came during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, when the region had experienced relative calm due to the ceasefire. Since the ceasefire took effect on January 19, no major battles had been fought, although some Israeli airstrikes had resulted in Palestinian casualties due to violations of the truce.
Israel’s renewed military operations have raised concerns domestically, with protests planned against Netanyahu's handling of the hostage situation and his decisions regarding national security. Meanwhile, the families of hostages still in Gaza have expressed deep concern, calling the breakdown of the ceasefire a deliberate dismantling of the process to free their loved ones.
The Broader Regional Impact
The resumption of violence could have far-reaching consequences across the Middle East. The Houthi rebels in Yemen, who are backed by Iran, have condemned Israel's strikes and expressed solidarity with the Palestinian people. This could lead to renewed attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. The U.S. had already launched airstrikes in Yemen in retaliation for the Houthi attacks, further escalating tensions in the region.
Additionally, the ceasefire reached between Israel and Hezbollah in November 2023 could now be at risk. The violence could reignite tensions on the Israeli-Lebanese border, which had been relatively calm since the ceasefire.
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