India’s Concerns Over China’s Defence Budget: A Need for Independent Analysis:

China’s announcement of a $245 billion defence budget for 2025 has sparked concerns in India regarding national security. However, most discussions remain academic due to the lack of transparency in China’s defence budgeting system. While Western scholars have tried to decode China’s military expenditure over the past two decades, Indian research in this domain remains limited.

India largely depends on data from three primary sources:

US Department of Defence Report – Estimates China’s 2024 defence budget between $330 billion to $450 billion, significantly higher than official figures.
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) – Stated China’s military spending in 2023 was $296 billion, compared to the official figure of $224 billion.
International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) Military Balance – Estimates China’s 2024 defence budget at $476.7 billion on a purchasing power parity (PPP) basis.

India’s Over-Reliance on Western Narratives

Indian media and analysts often accept Western figures without independent verification. This creates a cognitive information trap, where China’s defence budget is portrayed as an overwhelming threat without considering the broader context.

China’s economy is three times larger than India’s.
It shares land borders with 14 countries and has multiple maritime disputes.
Despite a defence budget four times larger than Japan’s and 15 times larger than Taiwan’s, these nations do not panic.

India must focus on independent research into China’s defence budgeting rather than blindly following Western reports.

Lessons from China’s Defence Finance Strategy

China’s approach to military funding offers key insights for India:

Strategic Delayed Spending:

In the Four Modernisations Programme (1979), China prioritized economic growth over military spending for two decades.
Today, despite claiming single-digit growth, China likely increases its defence budget by double digits annually due to its strong economic base.

Manpower Reduction for Military Modernization:

China cut its military size by 50%, shifting from a people’s war strategy to high-tech warfare.
Many democracies, including India, struggle with high personnel costs, diverting funds from military modernization.

Decreasing Transparency Under Xi Jinping:

Under Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, China attempted some defence transparency reforms.
However, under Xi Jinping, defence white papers have stopped and budgetary transparency has declined.
Indian scholars must independently study China’s recent defence trends instead of waiting for Western reports.

The Need for India’s Independent Analysis

Relying on Western narratives often leads to misplaced concerns for India:

Western studies focus on a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan and US-China military competition.
India’s real concern is Chinese military buildup in Tibet, which remains underreported in international publications.

China will likely continue overspending on defence to compete with the United States, the world’s largest military spender. As seen in Doklam and Galwan, China’s aggressive strategic approach will persist.

India urgently needs an independent defence budget analysis center to develop a national perspective on China’s military expenditure. This will help counter the annual panic caused by China’s defence budget figures and improve India’s defence planning.