European Leaders Grapple with US Shift at Emergency Paris Summit:

An emergency summit of European leaders, hosted by French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris on Monday (February 17), concluded without a joint statement, highlighting deep divisions following a stark admonition from US Vice President JD Vance at the Munich Security Conference (MSC). The meeting underscored the distress among European leaders as they struggled to respond to a shifting US stance under President Donald Trump.

The Old Order Crumbles

Vance’s speech in Munich disrupted decades of US-EU-NATO cooperation, a relationship built since the Cold War and solidified after the fall of the Soviet Union. Traditionally, the US provided Europe with a strategic security umbrella, reaffirmed annually at the MSC. However, this year, Vance made it clear that Europe must now align with Trump’s ‘Make America Great Again’ (MAGA) agenda, a stark departure from past transatlantic commitments.

Vance also criticized Europe’s commitment to democratic values and free speech while ignoring similar concerns in the US. Adding to European unease, Trump had reportedly engaged in direct talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss a potential deal to end the war in Ukraine. Scheduled negotiations in Riyadh on Tuesday (February 18) would exclude both Europe and Ukraine, intensifying European leaders’ anxieties.

Europe’s Major Powers Take Stock

Attending the Paris summit were leaders from the UK, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, the Netherlands, and Denmark, along with NATO chief Mark Rutte, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and European Council President Antonio Costa. The gathering reflected the urgency of reassessing Europe’s security posture in light of Trump’s unexpected geopolitical maneuvers.

No Immediate Alternative to US Security Guarantee

Despite differing perspectives, European leaders reached a consensus that any long-term security strategy would still require a US guarantee. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer acknowledged the possibility of British forces being deployed in Ukraine under a lasting peace agreement but emphasized that US backing remained essential to deter future Russian aggression.

The Paris summit’s lack of a joint statement underscored the difficulty of formulating a unified European response. Officials indicated that the shockwaves from Munich would be further addressed within broader EU-NATO discussions.

The Future of Transatlantic Alliances in Question

The emerging scenario raises a pressing question: Will the EU accept the outcomes of US-Russia talks without direct participation? Early indications suggest that Ukraine may be pressured to forgo NATO aspirations and accept territorial losses to Russia, a bitter pill for European leaders to swallow amid internal political turmoil.

The timing of these developments coincides with growing discontent within European nations over issues such as immigration, economic stagnation, and political polarization. These fractures were evident in Germany, where Vance’s speech was particularly provocative. He rebuked Chancellor Olaf Scholz for curbing far-right voices while openly meeting with Alice Weidel, leader of the extremist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.

Germany’s upcoming elections on February 23 may see the Christian Democrats, led by Friedrich Merz, emerge as the dominant party, potentially facing an emboldened AfD with tacit support from Trump’s administration.

Munich Signals the End of the Post-WWII Consensus

The Munich Security Conference laid bare the unraveling of the post-World War II Western consensus. Once assumed to be permanently vanquished, far-right ideologies are experiencing a resurgence, casting uncertainty over Europe’s future political landscape. The hope that fascism had been irrevocably defeated in 1945 has, it seems, been shaken in Munich.