Southwest Monsoon Retreat Begins in Rajasthan: Country Faces 15% Rain Deficit
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The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has confirmed the commencement of the southwest monsoon's seasonal withdrawal, with moisture-laden winds officially retreating from pockets of western Rajasthan on Saturday, September 19, 2026. While the retreat kicked off two days after its typical benchmark date of September 17, meteorologists note that atmospheric conditions remain favorable for the withdrawal line to advance across remaining areas of Rajasthan, alongside sections of Punjab, Saurashtra, and Kutch over the coming three to four days. After making an onset over Kerala on June 4 and covering the entire Indian subcontinent by July 9, the seasonal system is completing its four-month cycle, leaving the nation with an overall 15 percent cumulative rainfall deficit recorded between June 4 and September 19.
Regional Rainfall Deficits and the Crippling Impact on the Southern Peninsula
The monsoon's uneven performance across the sub-regions has placed substantial strain on water tables, with the southern peninsula emerging as the hardest-hit zone, registering an acute 29 percent deficit below long-term averages. National precipitation numbers reveal erratic intra-seasonal behavior; the weather department's monthly meteorological review issued on August 31 indicated that India recorded only 213.3 mm of precipitation throughout August, marking it as the seventh-lowest August rainfall recorded nationwide since 2001. Apart from moderate localized revival spells, the lack of continuous monsoon depressions across central and southern reservoirs has compounded agrarian and water storage concerns ahead of the winter cropping cycle.
El Niño Influence Behind Dry Spells: How July Remained the Lone Outlier
Analyzing the underlying climatological drivers, meteorologists attribute the overarching seasonal deficiency to prevailing El Niño oceanic and atmospheric patterns, which severely suppressed rainfall activity during key growth periods. June experienced a severe 35 percent drop below its benchmark average—managing just 106.8 mm of rain compared to its normal 165 mm threshold—primarily stifled by early-season El Niño anomalies. July emerged as the solitary month to surpass standard benchmarks, registering 283.3 mm against its historical norm of 280.5 mm, before monsoon troughs weakened again through late August and mid-September, cementing a dry finish to the 2026 monsoon journey.
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