Priyanka Tiwari
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Suspense crime, Digital Desk : India is currently experiencing a slight increase in COVID-19 cases, with the majority of new infections concentrated in states like Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala. While the national tally of active cases remained relatively low at 1,010 as of Tuesday night, public health experts are advising caution, noting similar upward trends in other countries.
A key point of attention is the discovery of a new virus subvariant, NB.1.8.1, identified in a sample from Tamil Nadu. This subvariant, a descendant of the JN.1 lineage, has been sent for further analysis by India's genome sequencing consortium, INSACOG. Currently, there's no evidence suggesting this particular variant causes more severe illness.
Several factors are thought to be contributing to this recent rise.
One major concern is waning immunity. As time passes since previous infections or vaccinations, natural protection can decrease, making individuals, especially the elderly and those with compromised immune systems, more susceptible to reinfection.
The evolution of the virus itself, with new subvariants like NB.1.8.1 emerging, also plays a role.
Additionally, seasonal changes are likely contributing. SARS-CoV-2, like many respiratory viruses, can spread more effectively in cooler or more humid conditions. The early arrival of the monsoon in several parts of India, leading to higher air moisture, may be creating a more favorable environment for the virus, similar to how seasonal flu cases have risen in some cities.
Another significant factor, according to an Indian Express report, is the reduction in widespread testing and genomic surveillance. Since COVID-19 was declared endemic, routine testing and genome sequencing have significantly decreased. This reduced monitoring could allow infections to spread unnoticed and delay the detection of new variants or outbreaks. Furthermore, the general relaxation of public health measures, such as mask mandates and social distancing, likely contributes to easier transmission, especially among vulnerable groups.
This pattern isn't isolated to India. Globally, countries like Singapore and other Southeast Asian nations have also reported recent upticks in COVID-19 cases, with Singapore seeing nearly a 30% rise in infections in early May.
In India, however, the current increase is geographically concentrated. Kerala accounts for 43% of the nation's active cases, followed by Maharashtra (21%). Delhi, Gujarat, and Tamil Nadu contribute smaller percentages (10%, 8%, and 7% respectively).
While six deaths have been reported across Maharashtra, Kerala, and Karnataka since May 19th, these have not yet been definitively linked to COVID-19. In response to the rising numbers, the Health Ministry plans to increase testing among symptomatic individuals over the next two weeks to better monitor the spread.
People over 60 and those with underlying health conditions are advised to take preventative measures. These include wearing masks in crowded areas, maintaining good hygiene, and isolating themselves if they develop symptoms.
Currently, JN.1 and BA.2 are the predominant strains circulating in India. The World Health Organisation (WHO) is closely monitoring JN.1 (classified as a Variant of Interest) and seven other Variants Under Monitoring, including NB.1.8 and LF.7. As of now, no variants have been designated as Variants of Concern.
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