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Indian equities remain firmly rooted due to a sharp unsustained rebound, with experts estimating a cautious sentiment as RBI and quarterly reports will determine sentiment in the coming weeks. Unlike attempts in other months, the cash turnover BSE and NSE in March combined was 1 lakh crore, reflecting a mere 3% increase as compared to the previous month, and a staggering 40 percent drop from the 2024 June peak.
The Nifty index is expected to go higher considering the positive market sentiment at the moment along with the value crossing 78,000 while Sensex has surpassed 4,000 points and Nifty 50 nearly at 1,300 since the commencement of March resulting in the downturn of negative sentiment observed in 2025.
The March month showed an upbeat optimism as observable due to an increase in the beginning point of Mid and Smallcap aiding BSE observed increase to 9.8 and 11.1 percent respectively. As a consequence, the broader market shifted towards positive sentiment causing changes in Nifty 50 and Sensex of 6.5% and 7% respectively.
Analysts point out that the extreme levels of pessimism may prove to be overly optimistic considering that the economic situation may still require additional support which raises the chances of further decline. Many investors appear to be in wait and see mode as they are still financially bruised from the relevant downturn that occurred and are still unsure whether it is time to de-risk, initiate fresh long buys, or do nothing.
In an interview, Mundra has highlighted that persistent geopolitical factors have also fueled the sentiment. Simultaneously, fears of the US increasing tariffs and their potential to exacerbate inflation has led to greater concern of an economic downturn which has also led to more turbulent shifts.
Speculation surrounds an anticipated rate reduction recently suggested by the Reserve Bank of India, alongside Indian Q4FY26 earnings estimates which are anticipated to bolster market sentiment and direction with anticipated corporate performance in the forthcoming quarter playing an integral role. A portion of economists previously placed emphasis on volume increase coinciding with the FIIs net selling cessation but it is thought that the increase in volume, if any, will be moderate.
As the financial year ends, many participants generally slow down towards the close of the period, which helps explain the muted trading volumes in March relative to the prior month. “The market remains in range, and the next important move will come after corporate results, FII investment, and some technical verification are combined,” remarked KKunal V Parar, Vice President – Technical Research and Algo, Choice Broking.
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