Priyanka Tiwari
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As Europe reconsiders its defense strategy amid rising tensions with Russia, one critical question is whether it can rearm without America. A few years ago, the notion seemed inconceivable, especially when Germany splurged €100 billion ($109 billion) on US-made F-35 fighter jets and Boeing helicopters following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Between 2020 and 2024, nearly two-thirds of European arms imports came from the US, while France remained a notable exception, favoring home-grown Dassault Rafale jets over American-made options.
However, the unpredictable nature of Donald Trump’s presidency has made European leaders like Emmanuel Macron more cautious about overreliance on the US. Trump’s unpredictable foreign policy, including trade tariffs, insults to NATO allies, and threats to withdraw defense commitments, has raised concerns about the future stability of the US-Europe defense relationship. As a result, many European nations are rethinking their defense spending and their reliance on American military equipment.
The Risks of Overdependence on US Defense Supplies
The notion that Trump could deactivate allied weapons systems at any moment is no longer far-fetched, according to the EUISS think tank. This possibility is driving greater urgency for the European Union (EU) to reduce its dependence on US imports. For instance, while European defense spending is projected to exceed €800 billion in the coming years, Europe’s defense industrial base is only about one-third the size of the US defense industry, with the Pentagon’s research budget a mere ten percent of that of the US military.
This dependency is evident in pending European orders for US military hardware—472 aircraft and 150 helicopters—compared to 21 Rafales delivered by Dassault last year. While F-35s are seen as essential to European defense, Swiss Air Force Chief Peter Merz argues that cancelling F-35 orders now would be "self-harm." The F-35 is a state-of-the-art fighter jet produced through a highly integrated supply chain, offering capabilities that Europe currently cannot replicate.
The Controversy Surrounding the F-35: Geopolitical Implications
The F-35 controversy extends beyond debates about whether the US could deactivate European systems. Philippe Steininger, a former fighter pilot, describes the F-35’s development as a form of modern feudalism, where international partnerships come at the price of autonomy. The US’s control over proprietary data-sharing in real-time means that countries reliant on the F-35 also place trust in US military decisions. If the US were to restrict access to these systems, it would compromise Europe’s strategic independence.
This geopolitical lock-in was evident in Trump’s 2019 decision to bar Turkey from purchasing F-35s, highlighting the leverage the US holds over its allies. Despite the F-35’s superior capabilities, the trust required to rely on US systems for critical operations presents a growing concern for European leaders.
The Path to European Defense Autonomy
The question remains: can Europe break free from US defense dependence while still maintaining military credibility? The path forward might require a more gradual approach, like that taken by Poland, which aims to fill military capability gaps over time while still relying on foreign suppliers in the short term. Europeanization of defense supplies could be feasible, as European capabilities in satellite communications and unmanned intelligence are only a few years from becoming self-sufficient.
Additionally, partnerships with Ukraine, which has become a leader in drone warfare, and stronger ties with the UK, will be crucial for building a credible deterrent to Russia. The EU’s financial incentives could also help boost the number of cross-border defense projects like the Eurofighter, a joint venture between Airbus, BAE Systems, and Leonardo. Macron’s Rafale has also seen success in Middle Eastern markets, suggesting it could play a larger role in the EU’s future defense strategies.
The Challenges Ahead: Breaking Old Habits
Despite these efforts, Germany and other European nations face significant hurdles in reducing reliance on US defense systems. While Germany has made significant strides towards ending austerity, it still cannot act alone. Europe’s defense procurement habits, shaped over decades of reliance on the US, will need to evolve to foster greater autonomy. The EU’s task is not only to secure its own defense future but also to decide how to balance short-term reliance on the US with long-term goals of strategic independence.
Europe is asking the right questions, but getting the US out of the pilot’s seat and shifting the defense landscape will be a formidable task.
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