BJP Moves Ahead with Caste Census Decision Amid Pahalgam Tensions:

Suspense crime, Digital Desk : Modi's government has come under fire recently but in a bid to appease the right-wing voters, the Cabinet on Political Affairs has proposed including caste and tribe demographics into the upcoming Census, first suggested by Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself. This meeting took place in New Delhi on Wednesday evening.

Following the Pahalgam terror attack, the aim behind this announcement is to portray the government is trying to move on and ignore the situation. It also indicates the Modi government’s intention to come off as committed to governing while attempting to mitigate the damage Pakistan’s provocations have inflicted on India’s national unity.

Political Implications of the Census

The political implications are critical. Snap polls and the Congress party's recent announcement make clear demand for a caste-based census has become a crucial element of their strategy for the upcoming general elections in 2024. So now strategically BJP has irreversible captured that narrative and turning the tables for congress allowing the opposition to ridicule them for coming up with no ideas to alter their governmental agenda.

The incumbent political establishment is making efforts to shore up possible cracks in their traditional voting segments such as Other Backward Classes (OBCs) as well as upper castes. With Opposition attempts to bring OBC-Dalit-Muslim consolidation, BJP is perceived to be countering that with this latest step—mostly in important states such as Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra, where the party performed poorly.

Congress Reaction and BJP's Overconfidence

For Congress, Majdur Sangh’s registration and caste census debates hold unsounded credibility. While Rahul Gandhi and Congress have tried to project themselves as the frontrunners of the caste census initiative, BJP officials argue that this was a decision taken by the Modi government, with the previous UPA government only debating concepts.

UPA government undertook a Socio Economic Caste Census (SECC) in 2011 for a staggering expenditure of ₹4,900 crore, only to, rather paradoxically, never publish the data. During a press meeting in 2023, Rahul Gandhi publicly accepted the UPA's failure to unearth the results.

Understanding the Relevance Today and the Relevance in History: Caste Data

The last Census conducting “caste discrimination” data dates back to 1931. Such data formed the saw “estimation, not classification rules primary.” Mandal Commission’s reports over the years led to the following data claim:

OBCs: 52.4%
SCs and STs combined: 22.6%
Upper castes: 17.6%
Religious minorities: 16.2%

Recently, caste-based surveys in Bihar, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana at the state level have garnered interest at the national level for policy surrounding population composition and its intersection with policy.

Political Implications

While BJP may decide to hide the political motivations behind conducting a census—its effect in future elections will tell. Either way, the intention will be to attempt to reclaim critical sectors the opposition aims to capture. It will be interesting to see how this is framed politically.