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The share price of One97 communication, which is also the parent company of the payment aggregator 'Paytm,' fell by as much as 7.5 percent down to Rs 907 per share on the 8th of January after reports from UBS asserted that there were no gains in the UPI market by Paytm during the month of December as per the data released by NPCI.
Even though Paytm was approved to add UPI customers in the month of October, their market share has more than halved, from 10% back at the start of January of 2024, to only 5.5% at the end of the year. They also reported maintaining a stagnant market share of 5.5% between the months of October and November as well.
It was also reported that Paytm lost approximately 100 million MTUS during 2024. Starting the year off with 168 million, a drastic fall to 68 million was noticed by the late September of 2024. B2C offerings rely heavily on the growth of MTUS which influenced the rating of Paytm by UBS analysts as neutrals with a Rs 1,000 per share target price.
As per a note released by Mirae Asset Capital Markets recently, it has been estimated that Paytm will be able to profit net breakeven by quarter four of the financial year twenty-six, this will be aided through an increase in the share of financial services revenue. Paytm's merchant base has monotically grown to 42 million as a result of the company’s efforts to preserve its existing merchant base even in the backdrop of order limiting restrctions which decreased the average monthly transaction in Q2FY25 to 71mil from 100mil in Q3FY24.
In the following quarter, analysts at Motilal Oswal predict that Paytm’s gross merchandise value (GMV) will rise quarter on quarter (QoQ) by 10 percent and will worth Rs 4.9 lakh crore in the third quarter of the financial year twenty five. They expect revenue derived from company's operational activities to go up by eight percentage increasing the value to Rs 1800 crore with a quarter on quarter GMV value of Rs 1012 crore in the third trimester of the financial year twenty-five.
Earlier this month, Paytm posted a quarterly profit of Rs 928.3 crore for Q2FY25, benefiting from its sale of the film tickets and events business, which it sold to Zomato.
As many as 17 brokerage firms provide coverage of Paytm, out of which 6 rate it as buy, other 6 have a hold recommendation and the rest 5 rate it as sell.
Paytm shares outshined the Nifty 50 by gaining 22 percent over the last three months as opposed to the nifty loss of 4 percent. Despite this, the stock price continues to be more than 50 percent less than the IPO value which was Rs 2150 per share.
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