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Merz’s CDU/CSU bloc has gotten 28.6% of the votes while the Alternative for Germany managed to get 20.8%. These are the preliminary figures published by the Federal Returning Officer. The Bloc of Scholz’s Social Democrats came in third at 16.4%. It is the party’s worst result since WWII
This election comes at a very sensitive time in Europe where the largest economy is struggling with growth, Ukraine being invaded by Russia, and the US president Donald Trump threatening a global trade war that can cripple Germany’s already weak industrial sector. Next week the leaders of the European Union will convene to decide on the bloc's worrisome defense condition.
Meltzer from CDU did say that, “There is no sensible alternative to forming a government in Germany within a reasonable timeframe," adding that, “The world isn't waiting for us – Europe is waiting for Germany to take a stronger leadership role once again.”
With the results being in the expected range, the euro strengthened in Asia. Investor's focus will shift now to how fast Merz is able to form a governement.
Merz’s center right CDU/CSU alliance would have to include at least one more party in order to gain a majority in the lower house of parliament. His preferred ally is likely the SPD, although Scholz will most likely not have any cabinet position. The two together would obtain enough seats for a majority after some parties didn’t meet the Bundestag quota.
The largest points that will probably create tension between CDU and SPD are activities regarding social welfare funding, migration policies, and the expected state subsidizing to pay for major expenditures to increase the defense industry.
If the provisional determination stands that only five parties can enter parliament, the CDU’s allies and the SPD would suffice to secure a majority in the lower house.
All established parties refuse to conduct coalition negotiations with the AfD and therefore, keep the anti-migrant party out of power.
Scholz has signaled he will not assist in convening a coalition pact with CDU and will focus on his responsibilities as Chancellor until a new government is elected.
"We have lost this election," said Scholz. "There is no other way of putting it."
By suggesting an alliance might not be made, SPD co-leader Lars Klingbeil used the party's leverage with Merz to ensure the hard work of coalition building was placed squarely on the CDU leader's shoulders.
“I focus here that one can have responsibility in government but also in opposition,” Klingbeil said. “It’s now the task of Merz to carry the burden of governing.”
The election night headquarters of the AfD exploded into cheers as the public broadcaster revealed they are en route to being the main opposition of the next parliament.
In addition to these chapter states, the AfD also demands that the country abolishes the EU and single currency, while deporting countless undocumented immigrants. Extremist classifications are assigned to three of its state chapters located in the former communist east, placing them under the surveillance of the domestic intelligence of Germany.
This marks a new achievement for the AfD, who had topped the charts at 13% in 2017, representing another milestone in the growing support for far-right political parties in Europe. The group’s happy candidate, Alice Weidel, while being aware of other candidates stated, “I will win the next election. Then I will outpace Merz’s CDU/CSU.” She made this pledge during an interview with the national broadcaster.
“We will hunt them,” she said.
An array of emerging issues for Europe is piling up on Merz’s desk in order for him to form a cabinet in record speed. During their emergency meeting next week, there is a lot that EU leaders will need to cover including the bloc’s defense position in light of Trump’s probable decision to withdraw American troops and aid from Ukraine.
Trump has initiated some negotiations regarding peace deals removing Europe or Kyiv from the picture, which would extremely impact the defense systems of the continent for the foreseeable future.
In a social media post, Trump congratulated Merz, claiming that “it’s a great day for Germany.” This comes hot on the heels of Vice President JD Vance’s public remarks at the Munich Security Conference where he suggested AfD supporters should abandon their “firewalls” which sought to keep the anti-immigrant Alternative party dormant in Germany.
Speaking at a debate on Sunday, Merz stated, “It is a matter of utmost importance to further empower Europe until we can afford to detach from the US incrementally. It's obvious that some Americans have very little regard for the fate of Europe.”
In order to improve the competitiveness of key industrial sectors, Germany needs to undertake deep reforms without delays. Investors were most optimistic than they had been in two years because of the potential business-friendly policies of the new government and cuts in interest rates. The benchmark DAX index has also increased, enthused by the prospect of Merz forming a coalition with the SPD party and working together in implementing pro-market policies.
Still, Germany is especially sensitive to China’s economic troubles and the trade surplus with the United States has, at the same time, drawn the openly expressed anger of Trump. The new US administration's decision to negotiate directly with Russia regarding a peace settlement for Ukraine without NATO’s participation has quite unsettled transatlantic relations.
Merz said, “I am well aware of the enormous responsibility and nature of the work that lies ahead.”
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