Champions Trophy 2025: Pakistan’s Semi-Final Hopes Dwindle After Defeat to New Zealand

The ICC Champions Trophy 2025 has begun, and host Pakistan suffered a major setback in the very first match. With only eight teams competing in this high-stakes tournament, every match is crucial, and a single defeat can push a team to the verge of elimination. After their 60-run loss to New Zealand, Pakistan’s chances of advancing to the semi-finals have become significantly uncertain.

Pakistan Suffers Heavy Defeat Against New Zealand

The tournament began with New Zealand defeating Pakistan by 60 runs, dealing a serious blow to Pakistan’s campaign. In ICC tournaments, net run rate (NRR) plays a key role, making such a big-margin defeat even more damaging.

Pakistan now has two league matches remaining:

• Against India
• Against Bangladesh

Even if Pakistan wins both of these matches, semi-final qualification is not guaranteed. Their road to the knockout stage is now extremely difficult.

Pakistan’s Maximum Points Scenario

• The highest Pakistan can reach is four points, if they win their remaining two matches.
• New Zealand already has two points and needs to win just one more match to significantly strengthen its semi-final chances.
• Pakistan’s biggest challenge will be against Team India, a must-win match for them to stay alive in the tournament.

If India defeats Pakistan, then Pakistan’s campaign will effectively be over.

Pakistan’s Semi-Final Equation Becomes Complicated

• India will play its first match against Bangladesh on Thursday. Given India's strong form, they are expected to secure a win and reach four points.
• New Zealand still has to face both India and Bangladesh, and they are likely to win at least one of these matches.
• If both India and New Zealand reach four points, they will become the strongest semi-final contenders from this group.

For Pakistan to qualify, they must:

1. Win both remaining matches (against India and Bangladesh).
2. Hope that no other team apart from one reaches four points.
3. Improve their net run rate, which has taken a major hit after their heavy defeat to New Zealand.

Pakistan’s Road Ahead Looks Extremely Tough

With New Zealand emerging as a strong contender, and India expected to secure points, Pakistan now faces an uphill battle. Their only hope is to win both matches convincingly and hope for a favorable net run rate scenario. Otherwise, their Champions Trophy campaign could end in the group stage itself.

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