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Understanding the Low Fertility Rate in India: Challenges and Implications
In recent years, India has emerged as the most populous country globally. However, a startling revelation has come to light in the latest study. According to a new global research published in the Lancet Journal, the fertility rate in India has plummeted from approximately 6.2 in 1950 to around 2 in 2021. It’s estimated that this rate will further decline to 1.29 by 2050 and 1.04 by 2100.
The Global Trend of Declining Fertility Rates
The decline in fertility rates is not unique to India; it’s a global phenomenon. In 1950, the average number of children born per woman worldwide was 4.8, which decreased to 2.2 by 2021. Projections suggest that by 2050, this figure will further decrease to 1.8, and by 2100, it will be around 1.6.
Impact on Global Population Dynamics
In 2021, an estimated 12.9 crore children were born worldwide, which is significantly higher than the approximately 9.3 crores born in 1950 but lower than the peak of 14.2 crores in 2016. India, too, has seen an increase in the number of children born, from over 1.6 crores in 1950 to more than 2.2 crores in 2021. However, it’s projected to decrease to 1.3 crores by 2050.
Challenges Faced by Low-Income Countries
Despite the challenges posed by low fertility rates globally, many low-income countries will continue to grapple with the problem of high fertility rates during the 21st century. Researchers from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 Fertility and Forecasting Collaborators predict that due to high fertility rates in these low-income regions, the world will become increasingly divided in terms of population.
Disproportionate Childbirth in Poor Regions
It’s estimated that the majority of children will be born in some of the poorest regions of the world, with childbirth rates in low-income countries expected to increase from 18% to approximately 35% by 2100. Additionally, with worsening climate change, many of these high-fertility, low-income countries may face increased instances of floods, droughts, and extreme heat, jeopardizing food, water, and resource security, along with heightened risks of heat-related illnesses and deaths.
5. Implications of Declining Fertility Rates
The rapid aging population and declining fertility rates worldwide will have profound implications on economies, geopolitics, food security, health, and the environment. Poor countries are likely to bear a greater burden compared to middle- and high-income nations. To mitigate the impact, researchers suggest improving women’s education and access to contraception in low-income countries as two key factors in reducing fertility rates.
The declining fertility rate in India and globally presents complex challenges for the 21st century. While it signifies progress in some aspects, it also poses significant socioeconomic and environmental challenges, especially for low-income countries. Addressing these challenges will require concerted efforts in education, healthcare, and sustainable development.
