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New Delhi: The heat wave conditions in the country were less severe in the first fortnight of May due to Western Disturbance. Due to this Western Disturbance, its impact was seen in many areas of North-West India. Now once again Western Disturbance conditions will be observed over parts of India, with no chance of rain, but the temperature will rise significantly, the Meteorological Department said. Along with this, the department has warned that the monsoon season, which is very important for farmers’ crops, may be postponed.
Dusty winds blowing at a speed of 50 km per hour swept over Delhi from 3 am to 5 am on Tuesday, reducing visibility in the international airport area, the Meteorological Department said. 10 am. It was limited to only 700 meters. Visibility 4,000 meters till 9 am on Monday. was up to
Satellite images released by the Meteorological Department show that a large part of northwest India is covered by a dust sheet. Meteorologists said that due to dusty winds, rainfall has increased in northwest India for the past five days. According to meteorologists, behind the dust plumes in Delhi-NCR are winds coming from Pakistan. These winds have blown dust in Rajasthan. Its impact has also been seen in Delhi-NCR. In the coming week, the amount of rainfall will reduce in North India but the temperature is likely to remain above 40 degree Celsius.
Meanwhile, the Meteorological Department said, the southwest monsoon, which is very important for Indian agriculture, will be late this time. Usually monsoon starts in the country from June 1 in Kerala, but this time the monsoon may be delayed by 7 days. Since 2005, the Meteorological Department has been releasing forecasts for the onset of monsoon in Kerala.
The Meteorological Department said that even if there is a mathematical error, monsoon may start in the country from June 4 with a delay of four days. Earlier, private weather agency Skymet had also said that the onset of southwest monsoon will be delayed in Kerala this year.
The department said that an indigenously developed sophisticated accounting model is used to forecast the monsoon. The Meteorological Department said that according to the model, the arrival of monsoon may be delayed by four days.
The model also predicts strong low-level winds over the South China Sea, southeast Indian Ocean, the Meteorological Department said. The news of late arrival of monsoon is not good news for farmers. Farmers fear the biggest loss in agriculture due to weak monsoon.
World Meteorological Organization Convention and Guidance
World braces for El Niño: Pacific Ocean surface warms
– The Indian Meteorological Department says that the chances of El Nino having an adverse effect on the 2023 rainy season are low.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued some useful advice and guidance to the entire world, including India, regarding preparation for El Nino (warm currents in the Pacific Ocean are called El Nino while cold currents are called La Nina). Given.
The World Meteorological Organization has indicated in one of its important research papers that the surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean (called the Pacific Ocean) is gradually increasing from February 2023. This natural change is directly affecting the coastal areas of South America.
Based on the changes in the currents of the Pacific Ocean, our expert and experienced meteorologists have indicated that the El Niño factor is likely to have a direct and strong impact in the second half of 2023. Also, the effect of El Nino factor is likely to last for six months.
There is a 60 percent chance of a natural transition from La Nina (cold flow) to El Niño (warm flow) during May-July 2023. The probability of an El Nino current change increases to 70 percent during June-August and 80 percent during July-September. This phenomenon is presented based on a long-term study by the World Meteorological Organization’s Global Generating Centers.
World Meteorological Organization sources have also informed that countries around the world need to be prepared for the impact of the El-Nino factor. This is because El Nino is expected to increase temperatures in many parts of the world, creating dangerous drought conditions or causing excessive rainfall. There are also indications that this effect will be more visible especially in 2024.
Due to the effect of El Nino factor, heavy rains are likely in the southern part of South America, Africa and Central Asia. While Australia, Indonesia, some countries of South Asia are likely to receive less rainfall and due to this, severe drought conditions will occur.
However, the effect of one El Niño year has no correlation with the effect of another El Niño year. All these effects probably depend on when the El Niño factor took effect.
On the other hand, Do.K.S. Hosalikar raised a very important point and told Gujarat Samachar that it is not right to assume that India will get less rainfall due to the El Nino factor. , 16 El Nino effects were observed in India during the 70 years from 1951 to 2022. Out of these 16 only nine (9) times the Indian Monsoon received deficient rainfall, while seven received satisfactory rainfall.
Also, India’s rainy season is directly related to changes in the Indian Ocean. This change is called the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in meteorological parlance. Along with this, the amount of snow in the European continent and local factors also need to be considered. This means that India’s monsoon needs to take into account natural factors other than El Nino or La Nina.
Also, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) factor is likely to contribute to the 2023 monsoon season. Also, from December 2022 to March 2023, the amount of snow in the Northern Hemisphere and Europe remained relatively low. Both these natural factors are beneficial for monsoons in India.
